Introduction To The Agenda
NATO is the foundation of both Europe’s collective defense and international security architecture. Established in 1949, it has transformed with every single geopolitical development, whether it is dealing with the Cold War, the Russia-Ukraine situation, or other global state and non-state actor threats.
Its primary aim is that the seventeen members will achieve collective security through peace, defense, military readiness, political unity, strategic deterrence, and crisis management. With the rise of more sophisticated global threats, NATO seems to have redefined strategy on how its member states develop military assets and strategies to achieve the purpose of Allies Goals and Guarantors.
As the leading military power of NATO, the US has significant influence in setting the direction of the Alliance with its operational and finance strategies. The US still puts resources to ensure that NATO focuses on emerging issues, such as cybersecurity, hybrid warfare, and intra-state wars. At the same time, there are newer challenges that come with the growing defense spending by some member states, like Sweden.
This multiplies the problem the US has to manage: How to ensure that the enhancement of individual member state’s capabilities remain integrated within the strategies of NATO as a whole and do not fragment the Alliance?
Key Terms
- Collective Defence - NATO’s foundational principle where all member states, guided by the U.S, defend each other to ensure mutual security and stability across the alliance.
- Strategic Deterrence - The calculated use of military power, particularly through NATO’s forces and U.S. leadership, to discourage any potential aggression from adversaries like Russia or other global threats.
- Military Sovereignty - The right of NATO members to independently enhance their military capabilities, while ensuring their efforts align with the broader goals and responsibilities of the alliance.
- Operational Integration - The seamless incorporation of individual member states' military advancements into NATO’s unified operational framework, ensuring all forces work in concert during joint missions.
- Geostrategic Tensions - The growing political and military frictions between NATO and its adversaries, particularly in regions of strategic interest, which require constant adaptation of NATO’s military strategy.
- NATO Enlargement - The process by which NATO welcomes new members, adjusting its strategic focus and expanding its influence, particularly in regions where security is fragile or contested.
- Defence Posture - The collective and individual strategies that NATO adopts, often driven by U.S. leadership, to adapt to emerging global threats and ensure the alliance’s readiness in a shifting geopolitical landscape.
- Military Redundancy - The potential risk of duplicated military efforts within NATO if individual member states pursue independent military enhancements that don’t fully align with the alliance’s coordinated plans.
- Force Alignment - Ensuring that all members’ military developments are in sync with NATO’s collective defence objectives, avoiding any discrepancies that could undermine the alliance’s cohesion.
- Regional Power Projection - NATO’s ability, particularly under U.S. leadership, to project military strength and influence in key regions, ensuring stability and responding to emerging threats in real-time.
- Internal Fragmentation - The challenge of maintaining unity within NATO if member states pursue independent military strategies that do not fully integrate with NATO’s collective goals and operations.
- Integrated Military Strategy - A strategy where each member’s military efforts complement NATO’s broader defence initiatives, strengthening the alliance’s collective ability to respond to external threats.
- Joint Exercises - NATO’s regular coordinated military drills that enhance the interoperability and cooperation of its member states, ensuring that all forces are prepared to act together in defence operations.
- Force Multiplier - The idea that the military advancements of individual NATO members act as a force amplifier, enhancing the alliance’s overall deterrence and operational capability against global threats.
- NATO Command Structure - The centralized leadership and decision-making process within NATO, driven by the U.S., ensuring that all member states can operate cohesively and efficiently, despite national differences in military capacity.
- The main issue at play here is when (and not if) the U.S.A’s primary support is removed due to hostilities from the current administration or a demand for a payable service model by the U.S.A (where the E.U., NATO and Japan are basically forced to pay for protection), how would NATO adapt to this new reality? Is NATO prepared for the eventuality of the U.S.A backing out of the alliance in its own self-interests and leaving Europe to fend for itself in the case of war, or would they collapse like a house of cards?
- The U.S.A’s foreign policy has completely upended the Biden administration’s viewpoint on international affairs, with the current administration cozying up to Russia, the sworn arch-enemy of NATO (and the reason as to why it was formed). If Trump continues his courtship of Russia, how should NATO adapt in terms of relations with Russia? Stand up to the U.S.A or meet the lion in his den?
- The last tenement of the U.S.A’s foreign policy that we’d like to touch upon is the elephant in the room: tariffs. Trump’s ‘favorite word in the dictionary’ is the least liked word of the E.U, which comprises a heavy majority of NATO? How will NATO adapt to this new reality where the most integral part of their alliance attacks their members? What response should NATO deliver to the sweeping tariffs without destroying the alliance?
1) United States of America:
As the largest military force within NATO, the United States holds a pivotal role in shaping the alliance’s policies and strategic direction. The U.S. provides substantial resources, technological superiority, and military leadership, underpinning NATO’s defense structure. The U.S. is integral to NATO’s presence in regions such as Eastern Europe, where it spearheads deterrence measures against Russian aggression. Furthermore, its influence extends to shaping NATO’s global defense posture, aligning the alliance’s capabilities to meet a diverse range of security challenges, from conventional warfare to counterterrorism operations.
2) United Kingdom:
The United Kingdom remains a cornerstone of NATO’s military and strategic frameworks. Its well-established defense capabilities and its geographic positioning in Northern Europe make it an indispensable player within the alliance. Beyond contributing significant forces and resources, the UK is active in shaping NATO’s response to emerging geopolitical tensions. The country’s ongoing commitment to NATO’s nuclear deterrence and its operations across various theaters, particularly in the Middle East and Europe, highlights its central role in maintaining NATO’s operational readiness and strategic cohesion.
3) Germany:
Germany, Europe’s largest economy, holds significant influence within NATO, particularly in shaping the alliance’s policies on European security and defense. Its contributions to NATO’s military capacity are substantial, particularly in the realms of logistics, troop deployments, and intelligence-sharing. As NATO continues to respond to the challenges posed by Russian aggression in the Baltic and Eastern Europe, Germany’s military strategies are key to ensuring NATO’s unified defense posture. The nation’s commitment to NATO’s operations, alongside its role in EU defense initiatives, underscores its dual responsibility in both regional and global security frameworks.
4) France:
France’s military capabilities are crucial to NATO’s overall strength, especially in global operations such as those in Africa and the Middle East. Though France has pursued a somewhat independent defense strategy at times, maintaining its own nuclear deterrent, it remains a core member of NATO. Its strategic interests, particularly in regions like the Sahel, shape NATO’s broader operational goals. France is also an influential voice within NATO, ensuring that the alliance remains responsive to the security challenges of the modern world, from counterterrorism to regional conflict resolution.
5) Poland:
Poland plays a critical role in NATO’s defense posture, particularly in light of its strategic location along the eastern flank of the alliance, bordering Russia and Belarus. In recent years, Poland has significantly enhanced its military capabilities, aligning them closely with NATO’s broader deterrence and defense strategies. Its strong commitment to NATO’s collective defense framework is especially evident in its contributions to NATO’s efforts in maintaining security in Eastern Europe and the Baltic region. Poland’s role is indispensable in ensuring NATO’s ability to respond quickly and effectively to emerging threats in Europe.
6) Turkey:
Situated at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, Turkey’s geographic position gives it strategic importance within NATO. Turkey’s role in securing critical regions like the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean, particularly in relation to counterterrorism and military presence, has made it a key ally. Despite occasional divergences in military strategy, Turkey’s contributions to NATO’s collective defense, including its strategic military assets and regional military initiatives, are vital in maintaining the alliance’s cohesion and operational effectiveness.
7) Canada:
Canada plays a fundamental role within NATO, contributing to both global peacekeeping missions and regional defense strategies. Although geographically distanced from some of NATO’s most immediate threats, Canada remains a staunch supporter of NATO’s collective defense framework. Its participation in joint military operations, its commitment to peacekeeping, and its significant role in Arctic defense highlight Canada’s contribution to NATO’s global security objectives. Canada’s involvement ensures that NATO maintains a comprehensive and integrated defense approach across all operational domains.
Previous Solutions
- One solution that is already in practice (which if forcibly implemented, could save NATO a lot of pain) is by mandating that all member states pledge that a certain percentage of a country’s GDP be spent on militarization (a.k.a burden-sharing). The idea is to kill two birds with one stone: increased spending will inadvertently prepare all member nations in case of a war (because, a war on one is a war on all) and recently, this has also been used as a means to pacify the U.S.A’s ever-shifting demands as Trump’s new foreign policy inches towards European self-reliance rather than shifting the momentous burden of defense on the USA. Admittedly, NATO is playing a very delicate balancing act in this regard, trying to maintain the 2% commitment with each of the states, whilst trying to ignore the 5% target set by Trump.
- NATO has kept the door open to negotiations with Russia much to the members’ consternation. While this might sound conflicting, this is actually a silent adaptation that NATO has instituted as a result of the U.S.A trying to settle relations with Russia. They have even previously considered Russia as a partner, but due to the Russ-Ukrainian war, they have now severed ties with Russia although there are still signs that NATO might try to reconcile with Russia in the wake of the new reality that the U.S.A is openly courting Russia. As of today, that’s a little bit strained based on the Russian missile attacks on Ukraine (which Trump condemned), but we could overall see a slight pivot which is the uncomfortable truth NATO must keep in mind.
- The ghastly reality of a changed U.S.A has kept a 3rd option on the table for NATO: slowly split from the U.S.A. While this might not work on paper, it might (and is already) work in principle. When the U.S.A’s pipeline runs dry, the E.U. has no other choice but to fend for itself and arm themselves. This inevitably leads to a dis-illusioned E.U. having to break away from the U.S.A and make their own choices. This has already happened, with the rift deepening with Trump’s comments on the E.U. and his steep tariffs. In return, the E.U. has issued similar counter-tariffs, which has definitely made this “improbable scenario” the reality of our world.
[NOTE: These solutions are based off a few papers and books by Chris J. Dolan, an assistant professor for homeland security and public policy at Penn State. Read both of his books published in 2023 and his research papers to have a brilliant disposition of the agenda.]
- Increasing internal cohesion amongst the bloc will go a long way to reigning in the effects of U.S.A’s foreign policy. The reason why Trump spooks out NATO is because each member state has nothing to fall back on. The U.S.A has proved to be an unreliable partner, and the constant bickering within NATO (with France and Britain squalling about differing ideals on how NATO and the E.U. should go forward in the face of Trump to Viktor Orban and Erdogan constantly opposing efforts to unite in the face of Putin) has not given anyone sweet dreams. Consolidating the bloc would fix all the issues and help with throwing around weight in order to stack up against Trump.
- Send an olive branch to Trump. At the end of the day, to strategically adapt to the new administration’s changing tunes, you need to give and take (that’s diplomacy in a nutshell.) Negotiate figures with the U.S.A (example: reduce the tariffs on Europe but marginally increase the % amount of military spending to 2.5/3%) and appease Trump. I guess there is something we can learn from Putin after all.
- This ties into the first point very well: Attack as one. It’s not enough to just agree or consent to everything. Counter Iran, North Korea and Russia with everybody on the same page. There’s no point trying to flex unity when half the bloc doesn’t hold with you on a certain issue.
- How will NATO prepare for the eventuality of the U.S.A backing out of the alliance, especially in the case of war? (Detail specific measures on how the E.U. can arm and economically strengthen itself before the crutch of the U.S.A falls apart?)
- Will NATO continue to negotiate with Russia (starting with a Ukrainian peace deal)? If yes, under what terms will NATO negotiate?
- How will NATO collectively react to Trump’s tariffs? And if so, are there any listed measures to form an independent European economy that isn’t heavily reliant on the U.S.A?
- Will NATO stick to the 2%-of-GDP military spending rule, amend it to 5% to appease the U.S.A, or will they meet somewhere in the middle? If so, how much and are they willing to increase their debt ceiling to cover the additional costs (i.e., how will they finance it?)
- If (under any circumstance) NATO is to split apart, will the alliance be kept intact minus the U.S.A, or will there be a fragmentation into small bi-lateral agreements?
- https://www.cfr.org/blog/transition-2025-us-foreign-policy-eve-disruption
- https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/07/strategic-change-us-foreign-policy?lang=en
- https://www.specialeurasia.com/2025/02/24/us-nato-ukraine-trump/
- https://www.csis.org/analysis/transatlantic-alliance-age-trump-coming-collisions
- https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/nato-article-5-collective-defense-trump-rcna196981
- https://www.cato.org/commentary/donald-trumps-mission-impossible-making-europe-pay-their-own-defense
- https://tdhj.org/blog/post/trump-administration-nato/
- https://tdhj.org/blog/post/author/chris-j-dolan/
- https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0lzxz7kg4wo
- https://www.vox.com/world-politics/404139/nato-trump-article-5-europe-russia
- https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_50090.htm
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